The strategy Russia is employing is not new. Russian forces are attempting to establish a foothold north, northeast, and east of Lyman. ISW analysts draw parallels with the summer 2022 campaign, when the occupiers attempted to create a wide encirclement of the city—from Lyman in the northeast to Izyum in the northwest. That attempt failed: in September–October 2022, Ukraine drove Russian troops out of Izyum and Lyman within a few weeks.
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The situation has worsened
As of June 2026, the front line in this sector is significantly less favorable for Russia than it was four years ago. The attempt to encircle Lyman and advance on Sloviansk has once again failed to yield results. ISW notes that the Russian command has not learned from past mistakes and continues to set unrealistic goals, even despite the deterioration of the army’s combat capability in 2026.
Prospects for an Offensive
ISW analysts predict that in the summer of 2026, Russia is unlikely to achieve tactical successes on the Sloviansk front, let alone operational gains.
