General Oleksandr Sirskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, recently reported that Russia has committed tens of thousands of troops to grueling infantry assaults. In just four days, more than 6,090 personnel were killed or wounded. In total, Russian forces have lost 8,710 troops over the past week.
Analysts note that such a scale of losses is unacceptable, given the current pace of mobilization in Russia. This is likely to limit its ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the medium and long term.
According to ISW estimates, in 2026 Russian troops are unlikely to be able to capture the so-called “belt of fortresses” and will most likely achieve only limited tactical results while suffering significant losses.
Experts also note that Russian authorities are already preparing the public narrative for slow progress and heavy losses. In particular, a member of the Russian State Duma stated on March 23 that losses are inevitable in any war, but Russian troops will try to minimize them while slowly advancing toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
